2016 election predictions

2016 election predictions

There are 538 electoral college votes, and if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump want to be president, they must win 270 of those votes.

Many people are planning to stay up awaiting election results Tuesday evening. However, I am going to give you a few scenarios and if they happen, you can rest your head early that night.

These scenarios line up according to polling data and prediction forecasts, which show that Clinton has a much higher chance of winning over Trump. Why?

Before toss up states are included, Clinton’s base amount of electoral college votes sits at about 214 while Trump’s sit at about 191.

I have included a map below using 270towin.com that shows the toss up states to watch this cycle.

Some of you will know I am being generous by including both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss up states. Here is the toss up map below.

These states will be what every news outlet will be talking about, so I will run through just a few of them.

Scenario 1: Clinton’s Dream

Scenario one is a massive win for Clinton with about 323 EC votes and Trump with only 215. This is a very possible outcome.

I think Trump will win Ohio but when talking about the other toss ups I am not so sure. Polling in PA and WI show that Clinton still maintains a 3-6 percent lead on Trump. Not many would say he makes up that much ground this late in the game. This is an easy win for Clinton, but there are still a few other reasonable scenarios to look at.

Scenario 2: Trump’s Nightmare

In this scenario, Trump performs a lot better. Trump takes Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and he still falls short of victory. This is still a reasonable assessment according to analysis and polling data.

The numbers look better but it is actually a really bad position for Trump to be in. Even if he took Pennsylvania he would still be short in this scenario. Trump will have to win two more states over in this scenario to win.

Scenario 3: Trump Victory

In this scenario we see a Trump win. He would have to win Florida plus all of the states mentioned in the previous scenario. That would give him the win, barely.

On this map I am still not giving him either WI or PA because according to current polling data he is in a much better position to take FL than the others. Even though in this scenario Trump wins Florida, I feel giving him a win in that state is a stretch.

What do I think will happen?

Obviously, I don’t believe the election will be as close as some people are making it seem. I believe Trump can win Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Maine, but that will be the extent of his gains that night. So when can you go to bed?

If Clinton wins 2 out of 3 between Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida—in any combination—go to bed, because we will have the first female president when you wake up.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Florida it will be worth your while to stay up and watch until Nevada and Colorado are reported. The fact of the matter is, Trump has a steep hill to climb.

According to all the big pollsters, Trump has anywhere from a 1-33 percent chance of winning. Not good.

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